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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.