Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Burma
Myanmar's military is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Kristy Spears
Kristy Spears

A seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in sports gambling and statistical modeling.