Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
